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The Places We're Watching as Virginia Votes on a Pro-Democratic House Map
19+ hour, 39+ min ago (650+ words) Search Sabato's Crystal Ball " Next week, Virginians will decide whether or not to scrap their current House map, where Democrats have a 6-5 advantage, in favor of one where Democrats could win up to 10 seats. " The state Supreme Court will consider…...
Presidential Downballot Losses: An Updated History and a Look Ahead to Trump's Second Term
1+ day, 14+ hour ago (1341+ words) Search Sabato's Crystal Ball " Since World War II, presidents have consistently presided over losses for their party in downballot offices"in the Senate, the House, governorships, and state legislatures. This is an indication of "thermostatic" public opinion, in which a…...
Teddy Bears to Ticker Tape: UVA Center for Politics Opens New Space
1+ week, 9+ hour ago (646+ words) After years of planning and a two-year construction project, the University of Virginia's Center for Politics will unveil its newly expanded home " specifically designed for teaching students, hosting public events, preserving political history and creating a space for civic life…...
Republicans Need Their Situation to Improve. Right Now, Trump isn't Helping
1+ week, 13+ hour ago (848+ words) Search Sabato's Crystal Ball For more information about the panel and how to attend, see here. " While it would not be accurate to say Donald Trump's approval rating is collapsing, he has suffered additional erosion since launching attacks on Iran…...
Another Big Night for Democrats: Tuesday's Wisconsin and Georgia Results
1+ week, 1+ day ago (612+ words) Search Sabato's Crystal Ball For more information about the panel and how to attend, see here. " Tuesday night's Wisconsin Supreme Court election did not seem all that competitive compared to past contests, and that ended up being the case, as…...
From Blockbusters to Boring? Previewing Wisconsin's 2026 state Supreme Court race
2+ week, 20+ hour ago (466+ words) Search Sabato's Crystal Ball " Compared to its past few contests, Wisconsin's 2026 state Supreme Court race seems unusually quiet. " Part of the reason for the calm this year could be that liberals are set to retain control of the 7-member court…...
Oh, Canada? How Trump has Changed Canada's Politics, and How It Already Differed from the United States
2+ week, 1+ day ago (1729+ words) Search Sabato's Crystal Ball " Structurally, Canadian politics is far different from U. S. politics, and those differences filter down into electoral patterns. " These differences include Canada's parliamentary system, its multi-party structure, the separation of its federal and provincial parties, and its linguistic…...
The House: 11 Rating Changes in Democratic-Held Seats; Non-Presidential Party Typically Doesn't Lose Many of Their Own Seats in Midterms
3+ week, 13+ hour ago (838+ words) Search Sabato's Crystal Ball " Because the presidential party usually loses ground in the House in midterms, it is also the case that they typically flip only a handful of seats from the non-presidential party in such elections. " Still, Republicans have…...
Getting Deeper into Texas and North Carolina's Primaries
1+ mon, 4+ day ago (697+ words) Search Sabato's Crystal Ball " In Texas, Rep. Wesley Hunt's (R, TX-38) presence in the GOP Senate primary likely hurt Sen. John Cornyn (R-TX) on balance. " However, Hunt's performance was not distinctively strong anywhere in the state, as he even came…...
It Wouldn't Take Much for 2026 to be a Big Year for House Incumbent Primary Defeats
1+ mon, 1+ week ago (388+ words) Search Sabato's Crystal Ball " The primary season begins Tuesday night, and several sitting House members are facing credible primary opposition. " Typically, only a handful of House incumbents lose renomination in a given year. " In the postwar era, only about an…...
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